Gameweek difficulty calendar: the weeks that end survivor runs

Squads are fresh, there is no European football and the strong clubs mostly win. That is why so many players spend their best three teams here for no reason. Take the dullest adequate option — a settled mid-table side at home to a promoted club — and keep the elite names for weeks where you will need them.

From late September the Champions League and Europa League nights land either side of the weekend, and the six or seven clubs involved rotate heavily. A title contender playing away three days after a midweek trip is a materially worse bet than the table implies. Check what a club has in midweek before you back it — this single habit prevents more eliminations than any other.

Form goes out of the window in the Manchester, Merseyside, north London and Tyne–Wear fixtures, and in the smaller local rivalries too. When a derby lands, avoid both clubs involved rather than trying to call it.

Three rounds inside eight or nine days. Rotation is universal, injuries multiply and upsets spike. This is the block that separates survivors from the rest, and the reason you bank home fixtures earlier in the autumn. If you can reach mid-January with two safe clubs unused, you are in strong shape.

FA Cup and League Cup ties push league fixtures around and create midweek rounds where squads are patched together. Rearranged games also mean some clubs play twice in a week — check which fixture your league counts before picking.

By late April several clubs have nothing to play for and several are fighting for their lives. A safe mid-table side on the beach is far less reliable than a desperate one at the bottom. Weight motivation heavily and expect your remaining options to be thin — which is exactly why the promoted clubs usually decide the endgame.

Before each round, look three gameweeks ahead rather than one. Mark the congested and derby-heavy weekends, note which of your unused clubs are at home in them, and pick this week's team so those options survive intact. The live pick rankings handle the current week; the fixture list shows you what is coming.